Jul 27, 2006
Walter Parchomenko

They say miracles can happen. They also say old habits dies hard.

Today in Ukraine, it seems like it will take no less than a miracle for the splintered democratic forces ever to unite and form another Orange coalition in the parliament, following the coalition’s collapse on July 6, after existing just two days. The personal ambitions of Orange leaders, and their disillusionment over compromises made and opportunities lost, continue to pull them apart, and with them the hopes and dreams of millions of Ukrainians who stood bravely behind them during the perilous days of the Orange Revolution.

Have these democratic forces reached a dead end with no chance whatsoever of reuniting and realizing the democratic ideals of the Orange Revolution? Not necessarily so.

Today, Viktor Yushchenko still has a very rare, third opportunity to revive the Orange Revolution. The first opportunity was on the Maidan (Independence Square), when countless citizens rose up to protest blatant falsification of the presidential election and call for an end to the corrupt and repressive practices of former President Leonid Kuchma. The second chance was the recent formation of an Orange coalition in parliament, which was considered a sure thing, but quickly collapsed due to strong opposition within the democratic coalition to the president’s nominee for parliamentary speaker, the very confrontational Petro Poroshenko.

The essential scenario for a rare, third opportunity to unite Ukraine’s democratic forces and possibly form a majority in the parliament is not one that the president’s advisors are likely to bring to his attention, given their decided lack of any strategic orientation in domestic politics. It includes a critical assumption and several key steps.

The scenario presumes that Yushchenko acts boldly and decides to disband parliament on or after July 25, in accord with the Constitution and calls for a new election as prescribed by law. The president’s Our Ukraine bloc, together with Yulia Tymoshenko’s bloc provide compelling reasons to justify the decision. Moreover, in disbanding parliament, the president rejects the argument, prevailing among Ukraine’s political pundits, that his political bloc and the democratic forces, in general, can only lose public support in a rerun of the parliamentary election as specious.

The scenario then develops in the following manner:

Step 1: Yushchenko breaks away from the dead-end group thinking of his very ambitious tiny circle of “best and brightest advisors” who have little to show in domestic politics during the past 18 months other than the awkward defeat of the president’s Our Ukraine bloc in last March’s parliamentary election and the steadily eroding public support for the president and his bloc ever since then.

The president also demonstrates uncommon boldness, decisiveness, and initiative and takes the first step toward a genuine, heartfelt reconciliation with Yulia Tymoshenko, her bloc and other democratic forces. Of course, Tymoshenko is ready, willing and able to reconcile and support the president’s initiative. Both leaders are drawn together by the disturbing defeat of the new democratic coalition in parliament and the resulting great political uncertainty facing the country.

Step 2: In a lengthy, emotional televised conference, Yushchenko and Tymoshenko join forces on the eve of the election campaign. In separate statements, each opens their heart to the nation and in a repenting, confessional manner admits past mistakes, sharp personal differences, and vows to work shoulder to shoulder for the public good and victory of the democratic forces in the election, in particular.

The televised conference is a historic moment and a shot of adrenalin for a nation with frayed nerves and suffering from political exhaustion. The international community, disappointed by the recent collapse of the Orange coalition, watches the event mesmerized and approvingly. Knowledge of this fact arouses Ukrainian pride in this historic event to an even greater extent.

Step 3: Yushchenko and Tymoshenko do not drop the ball. They continue to show the public they are a genuine, democratic team that will continue to work in tandem well beyond the election. They take full advantage of the media to get their message across to the nation: the fate of democracy in Ukraine is in great peril today and there is a very real danger that Viktor Yanukovych and his Party of Regions will encourage widespread corruption in politics and business as they did under President Kuchma, now that they are back in power.

Yushchenko takes the lead in informing, cultivating and harnessing public opinion in support of this message. During the past 18 months, he failed to do this in any systematic fashion. This grave error contributed, in no small measure, to the public’s eroding faith in his presidency and the democratic coalition, in general.

A dramatic, genuine reunion of the president and Tymoshenko could dramatically change the calculus of Ukrainian politics. It is conceivable that it could even give the democratic forces enough votes to topple political kingpin Viktor Yanukovych and his party.

Yushchenko has nothing to lose and everything to gain in implementing this scenario. Public confidence in the president has been eroding steadily for months and is at an all-time low, according to recent Ukrainian polls. If the proposed reunion with Tymoshenko is genuine and not lukewarm or theatrical in any sense, he can reverse this very negative trend line, while advancing the cause of democratic forces in the country. After all, Ukrainians are a very forgiving, tolerant and sentimental people who find little comfort in the death of the Orange Revolution, a seminal event in their country’s rich history and a source of great pride.

Is the above scenario, given Ukraine’s current political realities, unrealistic? Indeed, but it is not impossible. Nor would it take a miracle to accomplish. However, it would take something nearly as rare; namely, political courage.

But is political courage even possible in politics? In 1955, a then junior Senator from the state of Massachusetts named John F. Kennedy wrote about it in his Pulitzer Prize-winning classic “Profiles in Courage.” In it, the freshman Senator illustrated how eight of his historical Senatorial colleagues, men such as John Quincy Adams, instead of focusing on their careers, stood alone against tremendous political and social pressure and demonstrated astounding integrity – a quality that the great American novelist, Ernest Hemingway, called “grace under fire.”

The crucial question is: can Yushchenko find the political courage to form a genuine union with Yulia Tymoshenko, his former Orange ally and current political rival, who has made his blood boil on so many occasions? To do so, some old habits will have to die.

He will have to become a president with a firm hand, one who does not sit passively on the political sidelines debating incessantly whether or not to intervene in a crisis while Rome is burning. One who accepts responsibility for policy failures instead of playing blame-game politics. One who does not speak in platitudes or hide behind smooth-talking, arrogant advisors but, rather, is able to look the people in the eye and address them on television during a national crisis. One who in the heat of a crisis can set aside personal political ambitions and partisan politics and do what is best for the public interest.

But if President Yushchenko can find the political courage, then one thing is certain. Ukraine will have a very rare, third chance to salvage the October Revolution, to unite democratic forces and possibly return them to parliament as a majority; and Ukrainians will for generations to come, no doubt, thank him for putting the country, once again, on sure footing in its march toward democracy and Europe.

Walter Parchomenko, Ph.D., is a Senior Fellow with the Atlantic Council of the United States currently based in Ukraine. The views expressed in this article are purely his own.