In the wake of the recent changes in Ukraine’s parliamentarian staff and coming ones within the Cabinet of Ukraine, ForUm has requested Tammy Lynch, a Senior Fellow at Boston University’s Institute for the Study of Conflict, Ideology & Policy to share her views on Ukraine’s current political situation and its possible trends of development.
(Published abridged)
– What is your opinion about Yulia Tymoshenko’s claim to the post of Prime Minister of Ukraine and about the situation around formation of the orange coalition in general?
– I think every Western European country supports the democratic principle that the biggest party in a ruling coalition chooses the prime minister. In the case of an Orange Coalition, that’s the Tymoshenko Bloc. If Ukraine truly wants to be counted among the democracies of Europe, then it would follow that it, too, should adhere to this principle.
It’s not usually a point up for such long-term discussion (of course, there’s sometimes maneuvering) because it’s such a basic principle of democratic governance. In Germany, used by politicians in Ukraine as an example, Gerhard Schroeder stepped back to make way for Angela Merkel, even though she only had a plurality of four seats and less than one percent. And the first point they agreed upon was the name of the prime minister. So, it was done very differently.
The fact that some political leaders (and I think there are only a few) don’t understand this, or reject this, is problematic for the development of your political system. But, this is expected in new democracies, and I should say the fact that so many of your political leaders do understand these basic democratic principles, and do understand the need to compromise to build a coalition is very, very positive for the country.
Regarding the possibility of an Orange Coalition, I personally feel it’s the best option for Ukraine’s development assuming that the Ukrainian people continue to want this development directed toward the West. I personally have a problem returning power to the party that helped spark the revolution. And I believe that the policies of the three orange parties correspond much more closely than those of Our Ukraine and the Party of Regions.
I try to talk as much as possible to U.S. officials, who view Ukraine as a long-term strategic partner. This is evidenced by the tentative plan of President Bush to visit in late June. But if there is no reform-oriented government in place by then, I’ve been told that the U.S. President will not stop in Kyiv. They strongly support President Yushchenko’s reform policies, and are waiting to see if the next government will continue these. There is some concern about the length of negotiations and the stalemate over the PM post. Of course, they’ve said the U.S. will work with any government. The level of partnership is the question.
What will happen in Ukraine if the Orange Coalition falls through, or Tymoshenko isn’t confirmed as PM, I don’t know? But, I think it won’t be the best scenario for the president or his allies based on the election results.
